An ice-cream shop’s answer to cold days and missing customers
Protect Revenue · Food retail · Third-party industry example
Weather is a demand variable a merchant cannot control, but can measure and plan around.
At a glance: ~$1,500/month reported by owners
Evidence: Self-reported trading results; no independently audited returns.
The business challenge
Companies in food retail face uncertainty that can change the value of a sale, a promotional promise or an operating budget. The commercial question is whether the outcome can be defined precisely enough to make a better decision before it happens.
What actually happened
The owners of 28 Wishes, an ice-cream shop in Los Angeles, told Inc. that sales tend to fall about 20% when temperatures dip below 70°F. They described using small, frequent Kalshi weather positions to help compensate for slower periods and said they were making roughly $1,500 per month from the approach at the time of reporting.
Why the mechanism matters
The business seeks a payoff when colder weather coincides with weaker store demand. However, reported trading gains are not guaranteed protection: weather contracts can lose money, and the selected weather threshold may not align with actual store-level revenue.
How IncentivPay or PMPS could apply
Illustrative scenario, not a claim that 28 Wishes Ice Cream used our technology.
PMPS Intelligence could analyze POS transactions against historical temperature, humidity and precipitation to identify measurable exposure and compare available weather contracts. IncentivPay could separately propose cold-day visit incentives, balancing demand stimulation with risk protection.
What a merchant should measure
- Sales sensitivity per weather band
- Hedge payout versus actual margin shortfall
- Gross profit per cold-day visitor
- Performance against a no-hedge control period
Evidence and limitations
The monthly figure is the owners’ account, not a reproducible or guaranteed return. Trading independently of actual exposures can increase rather than reduce risk.
Read the original reporting
- Source: Inc. (2026-07-17).
Interested in putting an outcome to work for your business? Discuss a campaign with IncentivPay or learn about the PMPS foundation.
Independent industry commentary. Referenced organizations are not presented as IncentivPay or PMPS customers, partners, sponsors or endorsers. Any similar use requires applicable legal, market-access, funding and rights review.
Original illustration direction: Illustration of ice-cream counter on a cool rainy day beside a small weather risk dashboard.